Masnach Past Tomato y Byd yn 2020/2021

Most of the sector's growth is based on "low concentration" products
Two dynamic forces are currently driving the world trade in tomato pastes: firstly, the countries that have historically been processing countries are losing ground as they compete with the rest of the world; secondly, exports of "low-concentration" products are the only ones to record significant progress.

The most recent world trade estimates put the amount of tomato paste exported over the July 2020–June 2021 marketing year at around 3.46 million metric tonnes. While obviously slightly lower (-1 percent ) than the record level of operations reported the previous year (2019/2020, with 3.51 million mT), the volumes shipped last year appear to have capitalized significantly on the gain made during the Covid pandemic crisis. The 2020/2021 result is indeed 2.5 percent higher than the average of the three immediately preceding marketing years (2017/2018 to 2019/2020). However, although a comparison with the marketing years of the 2016/2019 period (excluding the record result of 2019/2020) shows an increase of nearly 5 percent , the 3.46 million mT traded last year also places 2020/2021 in the direct continuation of the progress recorded during those "pre-Covid" years. In other words, the 2020/2021 "score" is not yet outside the framework of "mechanical" progression, and it will therefore be necessary to wait for final results of the current 2021/2022 trading year – and probably the following ones – to know if the campaign carried out during the pandemic has really raised the average level of global dynamics or if it was only a one-off episode with no lasting effect on consumption habits on a global scale.

Perfformiad y TOP10
Fodd bynnag, dim ond rhan o realiti masnach dramor y mae'r ffigurau hyn yn ei mynegi. Mae dau ddeinameg wedi bod yn sail i esblygiad masnach fyd-eang mewn pastau tomato ers sawl blwyddyn, y gellir gweld eu heffeithiau eisoes ac maent yn debygol o newid wyneb ein diwydiant yn y tymor hir, yn fasnachol ac yn amaethyddol.
Mae'r newid cyntaf yn ymwneud â dosbarthu cyfrannau o'r farchnad ymhlith y gwledydd sy'n arweinwyr yn y cyflenwad byd-eang o bastau tomato. Dros y 15 mlynedd diwethaf, mae cyfran y gwledydd TOP10 (rhestr a all amrywio o flwyddyn i flwyddyn) wedi gostwng yn sylweddol, o fwy na 96 y cant o gyfanswm y llwythi ledled y byd yn 2006/2007 i lai na 92 ​​y cant yn 2020/2021. Mae nifer o resymau a mecanweithiau ar gyfer y newid hwn eisoes wedi’u crybwyll yn ein hadroddiadau, gan gynnwys buddsoddiadau a wnaed gan rai gwledydd sy’n dymuno lleihau eu dibyniaeth ar ffynonellau eraill a’u gwariant ar gyflenwadau allanol, a chyflawni hunangynhaliaeth gan rai o’r sefydliadau hyn. nhw, a hyd yn oed ymddangosiad gwledydd prosesu a/neu allforio newydd ar y byd rhyngwladol. Mae'r gostyngiad yn sylweddol ac, ers y brig yn 2006/2007, dim ond ar gyfradd flynyddol gyfartalog o 2.3 y cant y mae gwerthiannau tramor gwledydd TOP10 wedi cynyddu, ar farchnad fyd-eang sydd wedi tyfu ar gyfradd o 2.7 y cant y flwyddyn. Mae’n debygol y bydd pwysau cynyddol y cynnydd sydyn mewn costau, yn enwedig ar gyfer ynni a chludo nwyddau (môr a ffyrdd), yn dwysau’r datblygiadau diweddar hyn drwy annog cynhyrchu lleol a ffynonellau rhanbarthol. Er bod y crebachiad cymharol o allfeydd yn berthnasol i farchnad fyd-eang sy'n datblygu ar hyn o bryd (mor ansicr ag y gallai'r datblygiad hwn fod), mae wedi cyfrannu at atgyfnerthu'r hinsawdd gystadleuaeth sydd eisoes yn llawn tensiwn rhwng prif chwaraewyr y diwydiant.

The rise of "low concentration" products

The growing share of the world market that is "escaping" the hold of historical leaders of the sector weighs all the more heavily on the operations of these big players for the fact that the decline is coupled with a gradual but profound change in the nature of the tomato products that are being requested on the market. For the last ten years, world trade in paste with a soluble solids content between 12 percent and 30 percent (customs codes 20029031, 20029039) and above 30 percent (customs codes 20029091 and 20029099) has tended to stagnate, the former at around an annual average of nearly 1.28 million mT of finished products, the latter at around 1.34 million mT. In both cases, the average annual growth (CAGR) is close to zero. At the same time, the quantities of tomato pastes with a soluble solids content of less than 12 percent (customs codes 20029011 and 20029019) have increased significantly, from 320,000 mT of finished products in 2011/2012 to 520,000 mT in 2020/2021, which is an average annual rate of approximately 5 percent . "Low concentration" products are now experiencing strong development, which is also due to the technical qualities of viscosity, color, etc. that technological advances in processing have made possible. The result of this new orientation of the world market is a sluggish growth in the quantities of raw material mobilized annually for worldwide trade, specifically affecting the countries and companies whose activity is most based on international exchanges. 
Yn ôl ystadegau tollau swyddogol, gellir amcangyfrif bod cyfradd twf blynyddol cyfartalog allforion pastau TOP10 (a fynegir mewn deunydd crai cyfatebol) dros y deng mlynedd diwethaf yn llai na 0.8 y cant. Dywedir bod y meintiau amcangyfrifedig o domatos ffres dan sylw wedi gostwng o 17.2 miliwn mT i 17.5 miliwn mT dros y cyfnod dan sylw. Mewn geiriau eraill, mae'n ymddangos bod cynnwys solidau hydawdd cyfartalog y past sy'n cael ei farchnata ledled y byd wedi gostwng yn raddol dros y deuddeg mlynedd diwethaf, o fwy na 28 y cant yn 2009/2010 i lai na 27 y cant yn 2020/2021. Mae'r newid hwn yn yr ansawdd a fynnir gan y farchnad yn cyfateb i ostyngiad o tua 6 y cant o'r meintiau a ddefnyddir, ac os yw'n effeithio ar y rhan o fasnach y byd mewn past tomato a ddarperir gan wledydd TOP10 y sector yn unig, mae ei effaith yn fesuradwy serch hynny. ar raddfa fyd-eang ac ar raddfa'r degawd diwethaf.

This strong trend is currently focusing the growth of trade overall almost exclusively on low-concentration products. But, given the relative weakness of its contribution to the whole, both in terms of finished products and in terms of fresh equivalents, the segment is clearly not in a position to guarantee strong growth for the sector. On the one hand, the rise of low-concentration products, together with the relative stagnation of the other categories (28/30% and >30 y cant ), yn cyfrannu at gynnal cyfradd datblygiad masnach ar lefel isel iawn. Ar y llaw arall, mae pwysigrwydd y sector o ran tomatos ffres cyfatebol yn parhau i fod yn ymylol ac nid yw wedi cael fawr o effaith ar hyn o bryd ar esblygiad y meintiau o domatos ffres sy'n cael eu hamsugno gan fasnach y byd i gyd ac, o ganlyniad, gan y sector prosesu yn gyffredinol.

Peth gwybodaeth ychwanegol
Esblygiad allforion y prif wledydd prosesu ac allforio.

Comparison of the average annual growth rates of exports of the different grades of paste, 

before and after 2011/2012: over the last nine years, the only segment to have shown 

significant growth is that of concentrated purées with a solids content of less than 12 degree Brix.